1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Erzurumspor FK–Pendikspor

2–4

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 March 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aktepe Stadı, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Erzurumspor FKE. Tozlu (penalty)
12'Erzurumspor FKC. Sylla (assist: C. Hanalp)
15'Erzurumspor FKMustafa Yumlu · red card
17'PendiksporH. Kılıç (penalty)
47'PendiksporB. Karadeniz
69'PendiksporB. Karadeniz

Match statistics

Match statistics
Erzurumspor FK		Pendikspor
8	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	10
6	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	8
3	Offsides	4
31%	Possession	69%
218	Passes	491
143	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK 1.45 · Pendikspor 0.76. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Erzurumspor FK 8 · Pendikspor 15; on target 4 and 10.
Pendikspor kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

S. Saka→

3.69

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Erzurumspor FK, 0.76 for Pendikspor.
The highest double chance value is 81.8% (1X — Erzurumspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 894 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Erzurumspor FK to win53.5%

Draw28.3%

Pendikspor to win18.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	16

5	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time47.2%

Pendikspor lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Erzurumspor FK ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Pendikspor ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 894 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Erzurumspor FK: at least 12Actual: 18
Pendikspor: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Erzurumspor FK: at least 4Actual: 3
Pendikspor: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.45

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pendikspor score0.76

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.4%1–113.9%2–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.