1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Şanlıurfaspor–Adanaspor

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 5 March 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu, Şanlıurfa

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'ŞanlıurfasporC. Akabueze
33'AdanasporE. Cekici (penalty)
50'AdanasporF. Kurucuk (assist: E. Cekici)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Şanlıurfaspor		Adanaspor
13	Shots	3
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
455	Passes	237
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Şanlıurfaspor 1.54 · Adanaspor 0.81. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Şanlıurfaspor 13 · Adanaspor 3; on target 4 and 2.
Şanlıurfaspor kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

R. Coşkunses→

4.63

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “Şanlıurfaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Şanlıurfaspor, 0.81 for Adanaspor.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (1X — Şanlıurfaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 891 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Şanlıurfaspor to win54.4%

Draw27.3%

Adanaspor to win18.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time45.0%

Adanaspor lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Şanlıurfaspor ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Adanaspor ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 891 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Şanlıurfaspor: at least 11Actual: 13
Adanaspor: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Şanlıurfaspor: at least 4Actual: 7
Adanaspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score1.54

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adanaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Adanaspor score0.81

Attack: Adanaspor score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.0%1–113.6%2–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.