1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 27

Kocaelispor–İstanbulspor

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 3 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'KocaelisporO. Çağlayan (penalty)
90+1'İstanbulsporSeref Özcan (assist: M. Krstovski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kocaelispor		İstanbulspor
18	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
327	Passes	419
250	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kocaelispor 1.57 · İstanbulspor 0.97. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Kocaelispor 18 · İstanbulspor 9; on target 3 and 5.
İstanbulspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

D. Çelik→

4.93

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “Kocaelispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Kocaelispor, 0.97 for İstanbulspor.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Kocaelispor win or draw).
These values were computed from 887 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kocaelispor to win51.0%

Draw27.1%

İstanbulspor to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kocaelispor lead at half-time37.3%

Level at half-time45.4%

İstanbulspor lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Kocaelispor ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or İstanbulspor ahead62.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 887 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kocaelispor: at least 11Actual: 8
İstanbulspor: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Kocaelispor: at least 4Actual: 5
İstanbulspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kocaelispor score1.57

Attack: Kocaelispor score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals İstanbulspor score0.97

Attack: İstanbulspor score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–011.7%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.