1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 27

Adanaspor–Ankaragücü

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 March 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'AdanasporD. Candeias (assist: O. Matur)
82'AdanasporAmadou Ciss

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adanaspor		Ankaragücü
10	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
33%	Possession	67%
268	Passes	537
187	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adanaspor 0.97 · Ankaragücü 1.33. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Adanaspor 10 · Ankaragücü 14; on target 3 and 5.
Ankaragücü kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

M. Özer→

5.65

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “Ankaragücü to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Adanaspor, 1.33 for Ankaragücü.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (X2 — draw or Ankaragücü win).
These values were computed from 885 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adanaspor to win26.0%

Draw29.7%

Ankaragücü to win44.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Adanaspor lead at half-time18.9%

Level at half-time47.7%

Ankaragücü lead at half-time33.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Adanaspor ahead or level66.5%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Ankaragücü ahead81.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 885 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adanaspor: at least 12Actual: 13
Ankaragücü: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Adanaspor: at least 3
Ankaragücü: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adanaspor score0.97

Attack: Adanaspor score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ankaragücü's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ankaragücü score1.33

Attack: Ankaragücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adanaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–112.6%0–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.