1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 27

Esenler Erokspor–Amed

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 March 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Esenler EroksporSeyfettin Anıl Yaşar (assist: F. Orak)
33'AmedA. Biyogo Poko (assist: M. Uçar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Amed
10	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	9
5	Shots inside the box	10
8	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
391	Passes	356
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.27 · Amed 1.10. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 10 · Amed 13; on target 4 and 9.

Referee

S. Saka→

3.82

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “Amed to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.10 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 879 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win39.3%

Draw29.8%

Amed to win30.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time25.8%

Level at half-time45.8%

Amed lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Amed ahead74.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 879 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 12Actual: 15
Amed: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 5
Amed: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.27

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.10

Attack: Amed score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.0%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.