1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Erzurumspor FK–Iğdır FK

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 February 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Erzurumspor FK		Iğdır FK
6	Shots	3
2	Shots on target	0
3	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
265	Passes	294
151	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK 1.49 · Iğdır FK 0.74. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Erzurumspor FK 6 · Iğdır FK 3; on target 2 and 0.

Referee

A. Kardeşler→

4.02

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.0%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Erzurumspor FK, 0.74 for Iğdır FK.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (1X — Erzurumspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 874 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Erzurumspor FK to win55.0%

Draw27.8%

Iğdır FK to win17.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time47.7%

Iğdır FK lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Erzurumspor FK ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Iğdır FK ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 874 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Erzurumspor FK: at least 14Actual: 15
Iğdır FK: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Erzurumspor FK: at least 4Actual: 4
Iğdır FK: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.49

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Iğdır FK score0.74

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.6%1–113.6%2–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.