1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 25

Adanaspor–Ümraniyespor

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 17 February 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'ÜmraniyesporF. Apaydın · red card
49'ÜmraniyesporP. Yıldırım (assist: J. Bardhi)
85'AdanasporMetehan Altunbaş

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adanaspor		Ümraniyespor
27	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
407	Passes	215
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adanaspor 1.06 · Ümraniyespor 1.29. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Adanaspor 27 · Ümraniyespor 8; on target 6 and 2.
Adanaspor kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Y. Gündüz→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Ümraniyespor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Adanaspor, 1.29 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (X2 — draw or Ümraniyespor win).
These values were computed from 865 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adanaspor to win29.3%

Draw29.8%

Ümraniyespor to win40.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Adanaspor lead at half-time15.0%

Level at half-time43.1%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time41.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Adanaspor ahead or level58.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead85.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 865 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adanaspor: at least 12Actual: 11
Ümraniyespor: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Adanaspor: at least 3Actual: 11
Ümraniyespor: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adanaspor score1.06

Attack: Adanaspor score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.29

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adanaspor concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–111.5%0–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.