1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 25

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Pendikspor

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 February 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'PendiksporWelinton · red card
35'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Joca (assist: Amilton)
45'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Metehan Mimaroğlu
76'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Léo Gaúcho (assist: Metehan Mimaroğlu)
87'PendiksporF. Doğan · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Pendikspor
19	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	0
12	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
68%	Possession	32%
536	Passes	243
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.31 · Pendikspor 0.86. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 19 · Pendikspor 7; on target 6 and 0.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

M. Özer→

5.74

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.5%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 0.86 for Pendikspor.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 862 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win46.5%

Draw30.3%

Pendikspor to win23.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 2–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time21.8%

Level at half-time47.2%

Pendikspor lead at half-time31.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level69.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Pendikspor ahead78.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 862 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 11Actual: 15
Pendikspor: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 3
Pendikspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.31

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pendikspor score0.86

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K. concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–014.3%0–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.