1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 24

Ümraniyespor–İstanbulspor

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 February 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'ÜmraniyesporP. Yıldırım (assist: S. Göksu)
45+1'İstanbulsporK. Sönmez (assist: F. Loshaj)
79'ÜmraniyesporC. Soukou
90+5'ÜmraniyesporC. Soukou · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ümraniyespor		İstanbulspor
13	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
306	Passes	517
228	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ümraniyespor 1.27 · İstanbulspor 1.38. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Ümraniyespor 13 · İstanbulspor 15; on target 5 and 5.
İstanbulspor kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

İ. Avcı→

4.28

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “İstanbulspor to win”. Second comes “Ümraniyespor to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Ümraniyespor, 1.38 for İstanbulspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 856 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ümraniyespor to win33.3%

Draw28.2%

İstanbulspor to win38.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time44.3%

İstanbulspor lead at half-time24.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Ümraniyespor ahead or level75.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or İstanbulspor ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 856 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ümraniyespor: at least 11Actual: 12
İstanbulspor: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Ümraniyespor: at least 4Actual: 5
İstanbulspor: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.27

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.38

Attack: İstanbulspor score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.3%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.