1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 24

Esenler Erokspor–Iğdır FK

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 12 February 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Iğdır FKG. Bruno (assist: M. Sarikaya)
31'Iğdır FKM. Sarikaya · red card
45+3'Iğdır FKV. Ethemi · red card
48'Esenler EroksporJunior Fernandes
68'Esenler Eroksporİ. Furat
88'Esenler EroksporBerkay Aydoğmuş (assist: Junior Fernandes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Iğdır FK
18	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
442	Passes	248
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.26 · Iğdır FK 1.01. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 18 · Iğdır FK 8; on target 7 and 3.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Özer→

5.89

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.01 for Iğdır FK.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (1X — Esenler Erokspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 852 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win41.3%

Draw30.2%

Iğdır FK to win28.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 0–1

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time33.7%

Level at half-time45.8%

Iğdır FK lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Iğdır FK ahead66.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 852 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 12Actual: 13
Iğdır FK: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 5
Iğdır FK: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.26

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Iğdır FK score1.01

Attack: Iğdır FK score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.2%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.