1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 23

Yeni Malatyaspor–Erzurumspor FK

0–7

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Malatya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Erzurumspor FKG. Giorbelidze (assist: O. Roshi)
20'Erzurumspor FKE. Tozlu (assist: O. Ovacikli)
30'Erzurumspor FKO. Roshi (assist: C. Sylla)
46'Erzurumspor FKS. Mamba
65'Erzurumspor FKS. Karakaş (assist: E. Tozlu)
79'Erzurumspor FKO. Roshi

Match statistics

Match statistics
Yeni Malatyaspor		Erzurumspor FK
7	Shots	26
2	Shots on target	14
3	Shots inside the box	22
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
334	Passes	406
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Yeni Malatyaspor 0.39 · Erzurumspor FK 2.17. On the pitch: 0-7.
Shots Yeni Malatyaspor 7 · Erzurumspor FK 26; on target 2 and 14.
Erzurumspor FK kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Bahadır→

2.75

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.9%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.39 for Yeni Malatyaspor, 2.17 for Erzurumspor FK.
The highest double chance value is 95.6% (X2 — draw or Erzurumspor FK win).
These values were computed from 839 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Yeni Malatyaspor to win4.4%

Draw15.7%

Erzurumspor FK to win79.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time9.3%

Level at half-time42.4%

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time48.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Yeni Malatyaspor ahead or level51.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Erzurumspor FK ahead90.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 839 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 11Actual: 14
Erzurumspor FK: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2Actual: 4
Erzurumspor FK: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.39

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (59% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score2.17

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 130% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–219.2%0–116.5%0–313.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.