1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Iğdır FK

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Nalepa
86'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Metehan Mimaroğlu (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Iğdır FK
11	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	6
3	Offsides	4
27%	Possession	73%
230	Passes	635
147	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.34 · Iğdır FK 0.78. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 11 · Iğdır FK 12; on target 3 and 2.
Iğdır FK kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

İ. Avcı→

4.13

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 0.78 for Iğdır FK.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 831 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win49.7%

Draw29.9%

Iğdır FK to win20.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time48.2%

Iğdır FK lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time51.8%

X2 — level or Iğdır FK ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 831 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 13Actual: 15
Iğdır FK: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 6
Iğdır FK: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.34

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Iğdır FK score0.78

Attack: Iğdır FK score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K. concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.6%1–114.5%0–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.