1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 21

Yeni Malatyaspor–Esenler Erokspor

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 January 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Malatya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Esenler EroksporO. Kayode (assist: Oscar Pinchi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Yeni Malatyaspor		Esenler Erokspor
6	Shots	20
1	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	17
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	8
2	Offsides	5
28%	Possession	72%
207	Passes	539
123	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Yeni Malatyaspor 0.61 · Esenler Erokspor 2.16. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Yeni Malatyaspor 6 · Esenler Erokspor 20; on target 1 and 6.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Y. Gündüz→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.1%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.61 for Yeni Malatyaspor, 2.16 for Esenler Erokspor.
The highest double chance value is 92.2% (X2 — draw or Esenler Erokspor win).
These values were computed from 819 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Yeni Malatyaspor to win7.8%

Draw18.1%

Esenler Erokspor to win74.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time7.7%

Level at half-time37.2%

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time55.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Yeni Malatyaspor ahead or level44.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Esenler Erokspor ahead92.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 819 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 11Actual: 14
Esenler Erokspor: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2Actual: 1
Esenler Erokspor: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.61

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (54% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score2.16

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 123% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–215.3%0–113.0%0–310.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.