1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 19

Manisa F.K.–Ümraniyespor

0–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Monday, 13 January 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'ÜmraniyesporS. Göksu
10'ÜmraniyesporEngjell Hoti (assist: T. Glumac)
22'ÜmraniyesporO. Gürbulak (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Ümraniyespor
24	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	8
9	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
522	Passes	258
438	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.71 · Ümraniyespor 0.98. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Manisa F.K. 24 · Ümraniyespor 10; on target 8 and 6.
Manisa F.K. kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Ö. Gültekin→

4.78

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Manisa F.K., 0.98 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 807 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win54.4%

Draw25.6%

Ümraniyespor to win20.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time35.2%

Level at half-time43.0%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time21.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level78.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead64.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 807 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 13Actual: 11
Ümraniyespor: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 9
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.71

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score0.98

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–010.9%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.