1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 19

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Yeni Malatyaspor

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 January 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Nalepa (assist: Fıratcan Üzüm)
50'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Nalepa
65'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Djitté
84'Yeni MalatyasporEnes Savucu · red card
90+5'Yeni MalatyasporYiğit Ulaş · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Yeni Malatyaspor
26	Shots	0
8	Shots on target	0
18	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
77%	Possession	23%
665	Passes	199
590	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2.64 · Yeni Malatyaspor 0.27. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 26 · Yeni Malatyaspor 0; on target 8 and 0.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

R. Coşkunses→

4.71

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 88.8%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.64 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 0.27 for Yeni Malatyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 98.2% (1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 805 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win88.8%

Draw9.5%

Yeni Malatyaspor to win1.8%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time56.7%

Level at half-time36.8%

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time6.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level93.5%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Yeni Malatyaspor ahead43.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 805 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 13Actual: 6
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 6
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score2.64

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 120% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.27

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (52% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K. concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–019.8%3–017.7%1–013.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.