1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 19

Esenler Erokspor–Sakaryaspor

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 January 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Esenler EroksporR. Jack
82'SakaryasporD. Saint-Louis (assist: V. Eğri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Sakaryaspor
9	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	7
54%	Possession	46%
477	Passes	406
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.39 · Sakaryaspor 1.22. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 9 · Sakaryaspor 10; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

A. Yılmaz→

4.64

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “Sakaryaspor to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.22 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 800 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win39.9%

Draw28.3%

Sakaryaspor to win31.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time43.4%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 800 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 11Actual: 12
Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.39

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.22

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.5%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.