1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 17

Amed–Ümraniyespor

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 23 December 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Diyarbakır Stadyumu, Diyarbakır

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'AmedA. Traoré (assist: M. Uçar)
45+8'AmedK. Lovrić (assist: M. Uçar)
83'ÜmraniyesporEngjell Hoti · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Amed		Ümraniyespor
11	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	3
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	7
4	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
466	Passes	477
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Amed 1.51 · Ümraniyespor 1.05. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Amed 11 · Ümraniyespor 6; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

A. Kayatepe→

3.41

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Amed to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Amed, 1.05 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — Amed win or draw).
These values were computed from 786 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Amed to win47.3%

Draw27.7%

Ümraniyespor to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Amed win or draw75.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.3%

X2 — draw or Ümraniyespor win52.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.7%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Amed lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time45.4%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Amed ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 786 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Amed: at least 11Actual: 14
Ümraniyespor: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Amed: at least 4Actual: 3
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Amed score1.51

Attack: Amed score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.05

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.9%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 786 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 16 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.