1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 17

Esenler Erokspor–Bandırmaspor

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 December 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'BandırmasporPaulinho (assist: H. Çiftçi)
67'Esenler EroksporT. Kaçar

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Bandırmaspor
15	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
10	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
436	Passes	374
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.27 · Bandırmaspor 1.22. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 15 · Bandırmaspor 8; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

E. Mertoğlu→

4.17

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.8%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “Bandırmaspor to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.22 for Bandırmaspor.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 783 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win36.8%

Draw29.1%

Bandırmaspor to win34.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time44.4%

Bandırmaspor lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Bandırmaspor ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 783 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 12Actual: 13
Bandırmaspor: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 10
Bandırmaspor: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.27

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bandırmaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bandırmaspor score1.22

Attack: Bandırmaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–09.6%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.