1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 17

Manisa F.K.–Şanlıurfaspor

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 December 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Manisa F.K.Miraç Acer (own goal)
60'Manisa F.K.A. Hodžić
78'ŞanlıurfasporK. Kanak (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Şanlıurfaspor
12	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	9
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
369	Passes	355
270	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.66 · Şanlıurfaspor 0.97. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Manisa F.K. 12 · Şanlıurfaspor 15; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

V. Bayarslan→

3.71

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Manisa F.K., 0.97 for Şanlıurfaspor.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 780 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win53.2%

Draw26.1%

Şanlıurfaspor to win20.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time28.0%

Level at half-time44.5%

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Şanlıurfaspor ahead72.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 780 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 13Actual: 13
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 5Actual: 5
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.66

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score0.97

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–011.2%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.