1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Şanlıurfaspor–Pendikspor

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 December 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu, Şanlıurfa

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'PendiksporH. Kılıç
36'ŞanlıurfasporA. Malle (assist: C. Menize)
85'ŞanlıurfasporMiraç Acer (assist: P. Forsell)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Şanlıurfaspor		Pendikspor
16	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	2
4	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
492	Passes	365
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Şanlıurfaspor 1.29 · Pendikspor 1.24. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Şanlıurfaspor 16 · Pendikspor 8; on target 5 and 4.
Şanlıurfaspor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

D. Çelik→

4.50

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.6%: “Şanlıurfaspor to win”. Second comes “Pendikspor to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Şanlıurfaspor, 1.24 for Pendikspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 770 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Şanlıurfaspor to win36.6%

Draw28.9%

Pendikspor to win34.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

2	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time43.8%

Pendikspor lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Şanlıurfaspor ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Pendikspor ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 770 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Şanlıurfaspor: at least 11Actual: 2
Pendikspor: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Şanlıurfaspor: at least 3Actual: 6
Pendikspor: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score1.29

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pendikspor score1.24

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.3%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.