1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Adanaspor–Yeni Malatyaspor

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 13 December 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Yeni MalatyasporM. Güneş
63'AdanasporMehmet Feyzi Yıldırım (penalty)
65'AdanasporAmadou Ciss (assist: Mehmet Feyzi Yıldırım)
75'AdanasporMehmet Feyzi Yıldırım (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adanaspor		Yeni Malatyaspor
17	Shots	4
10	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	0
3	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
426	Passes	234
320	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adanaspor 2.03 · Yeni Malatyaspor 0.55. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Adanaspor 17 · Yeni Malatyaspor 4; on target 10 and 1.
Adanaspor kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

İ. Avcı→

3.93

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.0%: “Adanaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Adanaspor, 0.55 for Yeni Malatyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 92.2% (1X — Adanaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 768 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adanaspor to win73.0%

Draw19.2%

Yeni Malatyaspor to win7.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	21

0	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Adanaspor lead at half-time51.0%

Level at half-time39.3%

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time9.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Adanaspor ahead or level90.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Yeni Malatyaspor ahead49.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 768 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adanaspor: at least 13Actual: 13
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 10Actual: 21

Corners

Adanaspor: at least 6
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adanaspor score2.03

Attack: Adanaspor score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 110% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.55

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (56% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Adanaspor concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.2%1–014.8%3–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.