1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 15

Esenler Erokspor–Ümraniyespor

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 9 December 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'Esenler EroksporM. Albayrak · red card
63'ÜmraniyesporG. Minchev

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Ümraniyespor
12	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	4
4	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
498	Passes	416
401	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.66 · Ümraniyespor 1.09. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 12 · Ümraniyespor 14; on target 5 and 7.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

B. Olcar→

4.47

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.3%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.09 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Esenler Erokspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 766 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win50.3%

Draw26.1%

Ümraniyespor to win23.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time34.7%

Level at half-time42.3%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead65.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 766 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 12Actual: 7
Ümraniyespor: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.66

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.09

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.