1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 15

Yeni Malatyaspor–Kocaelispor

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 December 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Malatya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'KocaelisporOnur Öztonga (assist: Marcão)
23'KocaelisporO. Çağlayan (assist: R. Mendes)
74'KocaelisporO. Çağlayan (assist: Barış Alıcı)
82'Yeni MalatyasporM. Altıntaş (assist: F. Söyler)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Yeni Malatyaspor		Kocaelispor
4	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	5
1	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	7
3	Offsides	1
29%	Possession	71%
251	Passes	613
174	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Yeni Malatyaspor 0.41 · Kocaelispor 2.54. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Yeni Malatyaspor 4 · Kocaelispor 13; on target 3 and 5.
Kocaelispor kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

S. Bahadır→

2.20

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.7%: “Kocaelispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.41 for Yeni Malatyaspor, 2.54 for Kocaelispor.
The highest double chance value is 96.7% (X2 — draw or Kocaelispor win).
These values were computed from 758 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Yeni Malatyaspor to win3.3%

Draw12.0%

Kocaelispor to win84.7%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time4.6%

Level at half-time34.9%

Kocaelispor lead at half-time60.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Yeni Malatyaspor ahead or level39.5%

12 — not level at half-time65.1%

X2 — level or Kocaelispor ahead95.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 758 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 10Actual: 16
Kocaelispor: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2Actual: 1
Kocaelispor: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.41

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (57% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kocaelispor score2.54

Attack: Kocaelispor score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 111% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–217.7%0–315.1%0–112.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.