1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 13

Esenler Erokspor–Çorum FK

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 November 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Çorum FKS. Kaya (assist: T. Verheydt)
27'Çorum FKK. Kalafat (assist: S. Kaya)
75'Esenler EroksporH. Catakovic (assist: A. Toplu)
89'Esenler EroksporO. Ceylan · red card
90+6'Esenler EroksporH. Catakovic (assist: Junior Fernandes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Çorum FK
17	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
526	Passes	354
454	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.29 · Çorum FK 1.27. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 17 · Çorum FK 7; on target 6 and 3.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

R. Coşkunses→

4.80

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.3%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “Çorum FK to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.27 for Çorum FK.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 744 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win36.3%

Draw28.7%

Çorum FK to win34.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time30.5%

Level at half-time43.7%

Çorum FK lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Çorum FK ahead69.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 744 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 11Actual: 11
Çorum FK: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Çorum FK: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.29

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Çorum FK score1.27

Attack: Çorum FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–09.1%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.