1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 13

Adanaspor–Sakaryaspor

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 November 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'SakaryasporM. Ertürk · red card
68'AdanasporMehmet Feyzi Yıldırım (penalty)
90+5'SakaryasporM. Pektemek (assist: D. Saint-Louis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adanaspor		Sakaryaspor
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	9
4	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
485	Passes	354
408	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adanaspor 1.08 · Sakaryaspor 1.44. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Adanaspor 11 · Sakaryaspor 13; on target 4 and 4.
Adanaspor kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

E. Kargın→

5.00

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “Sakaryaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Adanaspor, 1.44 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (X2 — draw or Sakaryaspor win).
These values were computed from 744 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adanaspor to win26.8%

Draw28.3%

Sakaryaspor to win44.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Adanaspor lead at half-time19.3%

Level at half-time43.1%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time37.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Adanaspor ahead or level62.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead80.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 744 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adanaspor: at least 11Actual: 9
Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Adanaspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Sakaryaspor: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adanaspor score1.08

Attack: Adanaspor score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.44

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adanaspor concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–110.8%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.