1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 13

Boluspor–Şanlıurfaspor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu, Bolu

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'BolusporB. Yıldız (assist: H. Yener)
69'ŞanlıurfasporU. Mboula · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Boluspor		Şanlıurfaspor
17	Shots	18
7	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
328	Passes	326
164	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Boluspor 1.50 · Şanlıurfaspor 1.00. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Boluspor 17 · Şanlıurfaspor 18; on target 7 and 0.

Referee

S. Bahadır→

2.11

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.4%: “Boluspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Boluspor, 1.00 for Şanlıurfaspor.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (1X — Boluspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 741 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Boluspor to win48.4%

Draw27.8%

Şanlıurfaspor to win23.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Boluspor lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time47.3%

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Boluspor ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.7%

X2 — level or Şanlıurfaspor ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 741 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Boluspor: at least 11Actual: 10
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Boluspor: at least 4Actual: 6
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Boluspor score1.50

Attack: Boluspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score1.00

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boluspor's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.5%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.