1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 13

Yeni Malatyaspor–İstanbulspor

1–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Malatya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'İstanbulsporO. Erdoğan (assist: F. Loshaj)
40'İstanbulsporG. Diarra
49'İstanbulsporO. Erdoğan (assist: F. Loshaj)
75'İstanbulsporY. Özer (assist: K. Şen)
81'Yeni MalatyasporF. Canlı · red card
90'Yeni MalatyasporN. Aydin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Yeni Malatyaspor		İstanbulspor
11	Shots	25
6	Shots on target	9
2	Shots inside the box	16
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	10
0	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
332	Passes	492
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Yeni Malatyaspor 0.54 · İstanbulspor 2.14. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Yeni Malatyaspor 11 · İstanbulspor 25; on target 6 and 9.
İstanbulspor kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

E. Özdamar→

4.69

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.4%: “İstanbulspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.54 for Yeni Malatyaspor, 2.14 for İstanbulspor.
The highest double chance value is 93.1% (X2 — draw or İstanbulspor win).
These values were computed from 739 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Yeni Malatyaspor to win6.9%

Draw17.7%

İstanbulspor to win75.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time6.8%

Level at half-time34.7%

İstanbulspor lead at half-time58.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Yeni Malatyaspor ahead or level41.5%

12 — not level at half-time65.3%

X2 — level or İstanbulspor ahead93.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 739 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 10Actual: 4
İstanbulspor: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2Actual: 2
İstanbulspor: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.54

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (57% fewer).

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals İstanbulspor score2.14

Attack: İstanbulspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 114% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–216.3%0–114.1%0–311.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.