1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 12

Fatih Karagümrük–Yeni Malatyaspor

6–1

HT 4–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 November 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Fatih KaragümrükP. Djilobodji (assist: João Camacho)
12'Fatih KaragümrükJoão Camacho (assist: Wesley)
34'Yeni MalatyasporM. Altıntaş (assist: M. Güneş)
36'Fatih KaragümrükGöktan Gürpüz (assist: D. Lamkel Ze)
45+3'Fatih KaragümrükD. Lamkel Ze (assist: Göktan Gürpüz)
49'Fatih Karagümrük

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Yeni Malatyaspor
13	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
502	Passes	378
432	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 3.21 · Yeni Malatyaspor 0.08. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 13 · Yeni Malatyaspor 8; on target 7 and 2.
Fatih Karagümrük kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Yılmaz→

4.57

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 95.9%: “Fatih Karagümrük to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 3.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.21 for Fatih Karagümrük, 0.08 for Yeni Malatyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 99.8% (1X — Fatih Karagümrük win or draw).
These values were computed from 731 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win95.9%

Draw3.8%

Yeni Malatyaspor to win0.2%

Both teams to score7.2%

15	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 4–1

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time64.6%

Level at half-time32.5%

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time2.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level97.1%

12 — not level at half-time67.5%

X2 — level or Yeni Malatyaspor ahead35.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 731 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 15Actual: 15
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 5Actual: 6
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score3.21

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 113% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.08

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (59% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–021.9%2–019.7%4–017.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.