1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 11

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–İstanbulspor

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 4 November 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'İstanbulsporE. Gültekin
57'Gençlerbirliği S.K.S. Osmanoglu (assist: E. Kemaloğlu)
90+3'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Metehan Mimaroğlu (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		İstanbulspor
13	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
4	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
428	Passes	341
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.31 · İstanbulspor 1.00. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 13 · İstanbulspor 8; on target 5 and 2.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Ö. Turtay→

3.88

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 1.00 for İstanbulspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 726 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win43.2%

Draw29.8%

İstanbulspor to win27.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time37.3%

Level at half-time43.0%

İstanbulspor lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or İstanbulspor ahead62.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 726 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 12Actual: 10
İstanbulspor: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 4
İstanbulspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.31

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.00

Attack: İstanbulspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K. concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.3%0–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.