1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 11

Iğdır FK–Ankaragücü

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 November 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Iğdır FKA. Regattin (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Iğdır FK		Ankaragücü
8	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	6
7	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
35%	Possession	65%
300	Passes	532
225	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Iğdır FK 1.33 · Ankaragücü 1.11. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Iğdır FK 8 · Ankaragücü 15; on target 1 and 7.
Ankaragücü kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

F. Aksuoğlu→

3.38

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “Ankaragücü to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Iğdır FK, 1.11 for Ankaragücü.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 725 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Iğdır FK to win40.8%

Draw29.2%

Ankaragücü to win30.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Iğdır FK lead at half-time43.5%

Level at half-time42.1%

Ankaragücü lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Iğdır FK ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Ankaragücü ahead56.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 725 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Iğdır FK: at least 13Actual: 14
Ankaragücü: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Iğdır FK: at least 3Actual: 2
Ankaragücü: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Iğdır FK score1.33

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ankaragücü's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ankaragücü score1.11

Attack: Ankaragücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.7%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.