1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 11

Boluspor–Ümraniyespor

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 1 November 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu, Bolu

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'BolusporP. Mukairu (assist: D. Avramovski)
61'ÜmraniyesporT. Glumac · red card
75'BolusporB. Yıldız
90+7'BolusporK. Babacar (assist: D. Avramovski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Boluspor		Ümraniyespor
26	Shots	11
15	Shots on target	1
15	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	12
5	Corners	7
4	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
388	Passes	472
300	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Boluspor 1.42 · Ümraniyespor 1.04. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Boluspor 26 · Ümraniyespor 11; on target 15 and 1.
Ümraniyespor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Yılmaz→

4.64

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Boluspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Boluspor, 1.04 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (1X — Boluspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 718 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Boluspor to win45.3%

Draw28.6%

Ümraniyespor to win26.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Boluspor lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time46.3%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time28.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Boluspor ahead or level71.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 718 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Boluspor: at least 11Actual: 18
Ümraniyespor: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Boluspor: at least 4Actual: 5
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Boluspor score1.42

Attack: Boluspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.04

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boluspor's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–011.4%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.