1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 7

Sakaryaspor–Ümraniyespor

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 29 September 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aktepe Stadı, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'ÜmraniyesporC. Soukou
30'ÜmraniyesporC. Soukou (assist: C. Topaloğlu)
48'SakaryasporM. Pektemek (assist: R. Aabid)
90+5'ÜmraniyesporA. Babacan (assist: J. Bardhi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sakaryaspor		Ümraniyespor
13	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
392	Passes	314
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sakaryaspor 1.71 · Ümraniyespor 1.18. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Sakaryaspor 13 · Ümraniyespor 9; on target 4 and 3.
Sakaryaspor kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Saka→

3.88

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “Sakaryaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Sakaryaspor, 1.18 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — Sakaryaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 682 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sakaryaspor to win49.4%

Draw25.7%

Ümraniyespor to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time44.0%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time19.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor ahead or level80.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 682 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 16
Ümraniyespor: at least 10Actual: 21

Corners

Sakaryaspor: at least 4Actual: 9
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.71

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.18

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.6%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.