1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 6

Manisa F.K.–Yeni Malatyaspor

5–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Friday, 20 September 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Manisa F.K.E. Altunkara (assist: Dani Ramírez)
17'Yeni MalatyasporM. Taştan (assist: M. Güneş)
26'Manisa F.K.M. Fofana (assist: Dani Ramírez)
40'Manisa F.K.B. Osuji (assist: M. Fofana)
58'Manisa F.K.B. Osuji (assist: Dani Ramírez)
66'Manisa F.K.M. Fofana

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Yeni Malatyaspor
30	Shots	4
14	Shots on target	1
18	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	9
10	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
453	Passes	334
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 2.77 · Yeni Malatyaspor 0.26. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Manisa F.K. 30 · Yeni Malatyaspor 4; on target 14 and 1.
Manisa F.K. kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

B. Olcar→

4.56

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 90.1%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 8.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.77 for Manisa F.K., 0.26 for Yeni Malatyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 98.5% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 667 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win90.1%

Draw8.4%

Yeni Malatyaspor to win1.5%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 47 of 49 predictions were correct (95.9%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time54.2%

Level at half-time38.4%

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time7.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level92.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Yeni Malatyaspor ahead45.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 667 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 13Actual: 19
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 5Actual: 10
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score2.77

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 104% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.26

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (53% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–019.3%3–018.1%1–012.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.