1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 4

Manisa F.K.–Adanaspor

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 30 August 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Adanaspor
17	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
15	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
397	Passes	255
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.78 · Adanaspor 0.81. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Manisa F.K. 17 · Adanaspor 6; on target 8 and 2.
Manisa F.K. kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Ö. Gültekin→

4.60

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.7%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Manisa F.K., 0.81 for Adanaspor.
The highest double chance value is 84.9% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 647 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win60.7%

Draw24.1%

Adanaspor to win15.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw84.9%

12 — any result other than a draw75.9%

X2 — draw or Adanaspor win39.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time40.6%

Level at half-time41.1%

Adanaspor lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Adanaspor ahead59.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 647 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 12
Adanaspor: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 15
Adanaspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.78

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adanaspor concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Adanaspor score0.81

Attack: Adanaspor score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.7%1–112.3%2–012.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 647 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 59 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.