2. Bundesliga · Germany · Relegation Round

SV Wehen–SSV Jahn Regensburg

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 28 May 2024 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BRITA-Arena, Wiesbaden

Goals and red cards

45+2'SSV Jahn RegensburgD. Kother (assist: K. Faber)
47'SSV Jahn RegensburgK. Faber
81'SV WehenI. Prtajin (assist: A. Ćatić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Wehen		SSV Jahn Regensburg
19	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
15	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
70%	Possession	30%
551	Passes	244
434	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Wehen 1.51 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.14. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots SV Wehen 19 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 11; on target 6 and 4.
SV Wehen kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

M. Petersen→

4.37

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.2%: “SV Wehen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for SV Wehen, 1.14 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (1X — SV Wehen win or draw).
These values were computed from 612 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Wehen to win45.2%

Draw27.5%

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win27.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SV Wehen lead at half-time37.0%

Level at half-time43.1%

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Wehen ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead63.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 612 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Wehen: at least 10Actual: 10
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

SV Wehen: at least 4Actual: 7
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Wehen score1.51

Attack: SV Wehen score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score1.14

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Wehen's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–110.1%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.