2. Bundesliga · Germany · Relegation Round

SSV Jahn Regensburg–SV Wehen

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 May 2024 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regensburg

Goals and red cards

27'SSV Jahn RegensburgN. Ganaus (assist: D. Kother)
66'SV WehenR. Heusser
71'SV WehenJ. Iredale
79'SSV Jahn RegensburgD. Kother (assist: C. Viet)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Jahn Regensburg		SV Wehen
9	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
233	Passes	495
130	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.40 · SV Wehen 1.24. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots SSV Jahn Regensburg 9 · SV Wehen 13; on target 3 and 5.
SV Wehen kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

T. Reichel→

4.00

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “SSV Jahn Regensburg to win”. Second comes “SV Wehen to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1.24 for SV Wehen.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 612 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win40.0%

Draw28.1%

SV Wehen to win31.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,779 of 4,000 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

SV Wehen lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or SV Wehen ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 612 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 10Actual: 8
SV Wehen: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 5Actual: 6
SV Wehen: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score1.40

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Wehen's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Wehen score1.24

Attack: SV Wehen score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.5%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.