2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Hamburger SV–1. FC Nürnberg

4–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 May 2024 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Hamburger SVR. Glatzel
16'1. FC NürnbergL. Schleimer (assist: J. Hofmann)
22'Hamburger SVŁ. Poręba
28'Hamburger SVR. Glatzel (assist: M. Muheim)
90+5'Hamburger SVR. Glatzel (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		1. FC Nürnberg
12	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	5
58%	Possession	42%
576	Passes	416
500	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 2.36 · 1. FC Nürnberg 0.83. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Hamburger SV 12 · 1. FC Nürnberg 15; on target 5 and 2.
Hamburger SV kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Aarnink→

4.72

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.8%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.07 for Hamburger SV, 1.14 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 90.6% (1X — Hamburger SV win or draw).
These values were computed from 603 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win76.8%

Draw13.8%

1. FC Nürnberg to win9.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Hamburger SV lead at half-time47.9%

Level at half-time37.1%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead52.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 603 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 11Actual: 13
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 6Actual: 4
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score2.36

Attack: Hamburger SV score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score0.83

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–19.1%2–18.6%3–07.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.