2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

Eintracht Braunschweig–SV Wehen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Eintracht BraunschweigÞórir Jóhann Helgason (assist: R. Philippe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		SV Wehen
12	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	8
0	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
292	Passes	511
200	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.56 · SV Wehen 1.14. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 12 · SV Wehen 14; on target 6 and 3.
SV Wehen kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Fritz→

4.32

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.8%: “Eintracht Braunschweig to win”. Second comes “SV Wehen to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.25 for SV Wehen.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 600 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win43.8%

Draw26.9%

SV Wehen to win29.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time28.7%

Level at half-time43.5%

SV Wehen lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or SV Wehen ahead71.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 600 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 9Actual: 9
SV Wehen: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 5Actual: 3
SV Wehen: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.56

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Wehen's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Wehen score1.14

Attack: SV Wehen score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.0%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.