2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

FC St. Pauli–VfL Osnabrück

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'FC St. PauliO. Afolayan (assist: L. Ritzka)
58'FC St. PauliO. Afolayan (assist: J. Irvine)
68'FC St. PauliM. Hartel (assist: O. Afolayan)
90+1'VfL OsnabrückL. Kehl (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		VfL Osnabrück
19	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
580	Passes	331
525	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 2.59 · VfL Osnabrück 0.58. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 19 · VfL Osnabrück 3; on target 7 and 1.
FC St. Pauli kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

M. Petersen→

4.49

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.5%: “FC St. Pauli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.74 for FC St. Pauli, 0.72 for VfL Osnabrück.
The highest double chance value is 93.9% (1X — FC St. Pauli win or draw).
These values were computed from 600 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win80.5%

Draw13.4%

VfL Osnabrück to win6.1%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	2

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time61.9%

Level at half-time31.9%

VfL Osnabrück lead at half-time6.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level93.8%

12 — not level at half-time68.1%

X2 — level or VfL Osnabrück ahead38.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 600 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 11Actual: 11
VfL Osnabrück: at least 11Actual: 2

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 6Actual: 4
VfL Osnabrück: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score2.59

Attack: FC St. Pauli score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: VfL Osnabrück concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Osnabrück score0.58

Attack: VfL Osnabrück score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.0%3–011.1%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.