2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

FC Schalke 04–Hansa Rostock

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 May 2024 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'FC Schalke 04K. Karaman (assist: T. Ouwejan)
32'Hansa RostockS. Singh (assist: K. Pröger)
45+5'FC Schalke 04Paul Seguin
70'Hansa RostockS. Singh · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Hansa Rostock
11	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	4
63%	Possession	37%
432	Passes	260
328	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 2.00 · Hansa Rostock 0.98. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Schalke 04 11 · Hansa Rostock 10; on target 6 and 3.
FC Schalke 04 kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

T. Reichel→

4.00

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “Hansa Rostock to win” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for FC Schalke 04, 1.31 for Hansa Rostock.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 596 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win47.8%

Draw25.1%

Hansa Rostock to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time41.0%

Level at half-time41.2%

Hansa Rostock lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Hansa Rostock ahead59.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 596 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 10Actual: 7
Hansa Rostock: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 5
Hansa Rostock: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score2.00

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hansa Rostock's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hansa Rostock score0.98

Attack: Hansa Rostock score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.4%1–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.