2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

SV Wehen–Holstein Kiel

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 May 2024 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BRITA-Arena, Wiesbaden

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'Holstein KielT. Becker (assist: B. Pichler)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Wehen		Holstein Kiel
14	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
404	Passes	477
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Wehen 1.24 · Holstein Kiel 1.79. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots SV Wehen 14 · Holstein Kiel 10; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

F. Zwayer→

4.63

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “SV Wehen to win” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for SV Wehen, 1.71 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 590 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Wehen to win27.3%

Draw25.6%

Holstein Kiel to win47.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SV Wehen lead at half-time21.3%

Level at half-time40.9%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time37.8%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Wehen ahead or level62.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead78.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 590 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Wehen: at least 10Actual: 8
Holstein Kiel: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

SV Wehen: at least 4Actual: 4
Holstein Kiel: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Wehen score1.24

Attack: SV Wehen score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.79

Attack: Holstein Kiel score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: SV Wehen's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–210.4%0–17.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.