2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

Hansa Rostock–Karlsruher SC

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 May 2024 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ostseestadion, Rostock

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Hansa RostockN. Neidhart (assist: K. Stafylidis)
52'Karlsruher SCB. Zivzivadze (assist: I. Matanović)
56'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hansa Rostock		Karlsruher SC
17	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
332	Passes	486
236	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hansa Rostock 1.09 · Karlsruher SC 1.90. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Hansa Rostock 17 · Karlsruher SC 16; on target 6 and 5.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

F. Badstübner→

4.15

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Karlsruher SC to win”. Second comes “Hansa Rostock to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Hansa Rostock, 1.57 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 587 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hansa Rostock to win31.9%

Draw26.5%

Karlsruher SC to win41.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hansa Rostock lead at half-time11.2%

Level at half-time35.5%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time53.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hansa Rostock ahead or level46.7%

12 — not level at half-time64.5%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead88.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 587 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hansa Rostock: at least 12Actual: 20
Karlsruher SC: at least 9Actual: 16

Corners

Hansa Rostock: at least 4Actual: 2
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hansa Rostock score1.09

Attack: Hansa Rostock score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.90

Attack: Karlsruher SC score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Hansa Rostock's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.8%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.