2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

SV Wehen–SpVgg Greuther Fürth

3–5

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 April 2024 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BRITA-Arena, Wiesbaden

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'SV WehenI. Prtajin (assist: J. Iredale)
18'SV WehenN. Agrafiotis
26'SpVgg Greuther FürthB. Hrgota (assist: D. Srbeny)
38'SpVgg Greuther FürthA. Sieb (assist: D. Srbeny)
43'SpVgg Greuther FürthA. Sieb (assist: D. Srbeny)
72'SV WehenI. Prtajin

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Wehen		SpVgg Greuther Fürth
21	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	14
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	5
6	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
366	Passes	484
267	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Wehen 1.31 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26. On the pitch: 3-5.
Shots SV Wehen 21 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 16; on target 6 and 7.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

P. Ittrich→

3.97

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “SV Wehen to win”. Second comes “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for SV Wehen, 1.24 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 582 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Wehen to win47.7%

Draw25.7%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win26.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–3

SV Wehen lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time46.1%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Wehen ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 582 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Wehen: at least 12Actual: 17
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

SV Wehen: at least 3Actual: 8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Wehen score1.31

Attack: SV Wehen score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.26

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Wehen's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.4%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.