2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

FC St. Pauli–Hansa Rostock

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 26 April 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'FC St. PauliJ. Irvine (assist: M. Hartel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		Hansa Rostock
9	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	5
64%	Possession	36%
502	Passes	279
421	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 2.37 · Hansa Rostock 0.67. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC St. Pauli 9 · Hansa Rostock 8; on target 2 and 5.
FC St. Pauli kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

R. Hartmann→

3.51

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.5%: “FC St. Pauli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for FC St. Pauli, 0.75 for Hansa Rostock.
The highest double chance value is 90.6% (1X — FC St. Pauli win or draw).
These values were computed from 576 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win72.5%

Draw18.1%

Hansa Rostock to win9.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	19

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli win or draw90.6%

12 — any result other than a draw81.9%

X2 — draw or Hansa Rostock win27.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time67.0%

Level at half-time29.4%

Hansa Rostock lead at half-time3.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level96.4%

12 — not level at half-time70.6%

X2 — level or Hansa Rostock ahead33.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 576 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 8Actual: 8
Hansa Rostock: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 6Actual: 6
Hansa Rostock: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 58.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score2.37

Attack: FC St. Pauli score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Hansa Rostock's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hansa Rostock score0.67

Attack: Hansa Rostock score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%2–110.4%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 576 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.