2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

Hansa Rostock–1. FC Magdeburg

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 April 2024 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ostseestadion, Rostock

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'1. FC MagdeburgL. Schuler
40'1. FC MagdeburgD. Heber (assist: B. Atik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hansa Rostock		1. FC Magdeburg
9	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
425	Passes	389
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hansa Rostock 1.42 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.42. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Hansa Rostock 9 · 1. FC Magdeburg 10; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

D. Schlager→

5.00

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.9%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “Hansa Rostock to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Hansa Rostock, 1.52 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 573 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hansa Rostock to win34.5%

Draw26.6%

1. FC Magdeburg to win38.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Hansa Rostock lead at half-time20.2%

Level at half-time42.3%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time37.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hansa Rostock ahead or level62.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead79.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 573 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hansa Rostock: at least 14Actual: 17
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Hansa Rostock: at least 4Actual: 6
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hansa Rostock score1.42

Attack: Hansa Rostock score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.42

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hansa Rostock's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.5%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.