2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

1. FC Kaiserslautern–SV Wehen

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'1. FC KaiserslauternF. Kaloc (assist: B. Tomiak)
74'SV WehenI. Prtajin (assist: Gino Fechner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		SV Wehen
11	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	7
7	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
401	Passes	416
294	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.78 · SV Wehen 1.11. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 11 · SV Wehen 10; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

A. Aarnink→

4.71

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.5%: “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.13 for SV Wehen.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern win or draw).
These values were computed from 569 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win54.5%

Draw24.2%

SV Wehen to win21.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time44.4%

SV Wehen lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or SV Wehen ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 569 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 9Actual: 12
SV Wehen: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 6Actual: 7
SV Wehen: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.78

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Wehen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Wehen score1.11

Attack: SV Wehen score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.9%2–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.