2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

FC Schalke 04–1. FC Nürnberg

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'FC Schalke 04K. Karaman (assist: K. Topp)
86'FC Schalke 04Paul Seguin

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		1. FC Nürnberg
22	Shots	18
7	Shots on target	7
15	Shots inside the box	6
7	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
292	Passes	402
227	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 2.05 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.06. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FC Schalke 04 22 · 1. FC Nürnberg 18; on target 7 and 7.
1. FC Nürnberg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Fritz→

4.23

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.1%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.07 for FC Schalke 04, 1.13 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 563 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win59.1%

Draw22.3%

1. FC Nürnberg to win18.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time40.2%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 563 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 12
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 6Actual: 7
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score2.05

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.06

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.7%2–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.