2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

Hertha BSC–Hansa Rostock

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 12 April 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Hertha BSCP. Dárdai (assist: Marten Winkler)
31'Hertha BSCF. Reese (penalty)
59'Hertha BSCP. Dárdai (assist: Marten Winkler)
86'Hertha BSCH. Tabakovic (assist: I. Maza)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hertha BSC		Hansa Rostock
16	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
508	Passes	432
439	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hertha BSC 2.17 · Hansa Rostock 1.03. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Hertha BSC 16 · Hansa Rostock 12; on target 8 and 3.
Hertha BSC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Braun→

4.74

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Hertha BSC, 1.22 for Hansa Rostock.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (1X — Hertha BSC win or draw).
These values were computed from 558 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hertha BSC to win53.2%

Draw23.9%

Hansa Rostock to win22.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Hertha BSC lead at half-time59.1%

Level at half-time32.3%

Hansa Rostock lead at half-time8.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hertha BSC ahead or level91.5%

12 — not level at half-time67.7%

X2 — level or Hansa Rostock ahead40.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 558 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hertha BSC: at least 10Actual: 8
Hansa Rostock: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Hertha BSC: at least 5Actual: 5
Hansa Rostock: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hertha BSC score2.17

Attack: Hertha BSC score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Hansa Rostock's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hansa Rostock score1.03

Attack: Hansa Rostock score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–110.7%2–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.