2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

Hansa Rostock–SV Wehen

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 5 April 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ostseestadion, Rostock

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'Hansa RostockDamian Roßbach (assist: S. Rhein)
52'SV WehenB. Jacobsen · red card
72'Hansa RostockK. Pröger (assist: S. Ingelsson)
78'SV WehenI. Prtajin
90+4'Hansa RostockS. Ingelsson (assist: Juan José Perea)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hansa Rostock		SV Wehen
18	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
6	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
428	Passes	361
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hansa Rostock 1.27 · SV Wehen 1.30. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Hansa Rostock 18 · SV Wehen 10; on target 4 and 6.
Hansa Rostock kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

N. Winter→

4.29

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.4%: “Hansa Rostock to win”. Second comes “SV Wehen to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Hansa Rostock, 1.29 for SV Wehen.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 549 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hansa Rostock to win39.4%

Draw27.7%

SV Wehen to win32.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hansa Rostock lead at half-time21.1%

Level at half-time45.5%

SV Wehen lead at half-time33.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hansa Rostock ahead or level66.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or SV Wehen ahead78.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 549 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hansa Rostock: at least 11Actual: 12
SV Wehen: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Hansa Rostock: at least 5Actual: 5
SV Wehen: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hansa Rostock score1.27

Attack: Hansa Rostock score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Wehen's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Wehen score1.30

Attack: SV Wehen score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hansa Rostock's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.5%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.