2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

Holstein Kiel–Hansa Rostock

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 March 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Holstein KielS. Skrzybski (assist: S. Machino)
57'Holstein KielL. Holtby

Match statistics

Match statistics
Holstein Kiel		Hansa Rostock
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
385	Passes	389
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Holstein Kiel 2.30 · Hansa Rostock 0.88. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Holstein Kiel 11 · Hansa Rostock 13; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

F. Heft→

5.47

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.4%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.21 for Holstein Kiel, 0.99 for Hansa Rostock.
The highest double chance value is 85.7% (1X — Holstein Kiel win or draw).
These values were computed from 540 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Holstein Kiel to win65.4%

Draw20.3%

Hansa Rostock to win14.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	17

6	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel win or draw85.7%

12 — any result other than a draw79.7%

X2 — draw or Hansa Rostock win34.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time52.1%

Level at half-time36.4%

Hansa Rostock lead at half-time11.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel ahead or level88.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or Hansa Rostock ahead47.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 540 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Holstein Kiel: at least 10Actual: 16
Hansa Rostock: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Holstein Kiel: at least 6Actual: 7
Hansa Rostock: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score2.30

Attack: Holstein Kiel score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Hansa Rostock's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hansa Rostock score0.88

Attack: Hansa Rostock score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.1%1–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 540 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 60 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.